You can't expect to send me a message like, "How do you break down the game? What are your thoughts?" and get less than a 600-word response. That said, an Auburn fan sent me that on Facebook, and this response was about 56 times too long to go on his wall. I typed this up in like 10 minutes, so it's not exactly my finest work of all time. But here goes ...
Both teams have a couple things strongly in their favor. We’ll start with Oregon. Auburn hasn’t played an elite quarterback this season, other than the quarter or so that Mallett played before he got hurt. I don’t think the Tigers will have any answer for Darren Thomas, who is basically a poor man’s Cam Newton (but not that poor, he’s better at running the option and at least as accurate a passer). I think Jeff Maehl (if you haven’t seen Oregon play, think Wes Welker) will have a huge game.
Oregon, on the other hand, plays in a conference stocked with elite QBs, and while Newton is a step above all of them except Luck, I don’t think they’ll be wowed. Another advantage for Oregon is their playmakers on defense. In all championship games, but especially one like this where there don’t figure to be many punts, turnovers are critical. Oregon has more guys who force them than Auburn does.
There’s two other things I’d worry about if I was an Auburn fan. My respect for Gus Malzahn – remember, I’m from Tulsa and my mom graduated from there, so I’ve been following him for a while – may have me overrating his value, but his head needs to be fully on Oregon. Despite the recent raise/extension, the rumors were out there and he SHOULD be getting a marquee coaching job, and I wonder if he is totally invested in this game. You would hope so, but it’s a concern, especially since the Oregon staff is, for my money, much better than the rest of the Auburn staff. Also, Auburn has had a problem falling behind early in games. If Oregon jumps out early, they’ll be almost impossible to come back on.
Auburn’s advantages kind of start there. They have played close games. Most people expect this to be close, and Oregon doesn’t have much experience in those situations (the bizarre game against Cal excluded). Of course, you can argue that Oregon would have never struggled with the likes of Clemson and Kentucky, but still, if the game is within a score in the fourth quarter, I think Auburn will have a tremendous advantage.
And I also think there is a good chance that Auburn can keep James and Barner in check. Obviously those guys are amazing athletes and will put up numbers, but they are speed backs, and the one good thing (other than Fairley) that you can say about Auburn’s defense is that they have plenty of speed.
Also, there is the possibility that Newton is a transcendent player. He’s obviously an exceptional player, but very, very seldom do we see a truly transcendent athlete. He could be that rare guy, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he follows the footsteps of Vince Young (God, it hurts me to say that) and wins the game almost single-handedly against a superior team.
But I keep coming back to the fact that Oregon just destroyed a difficult schedule (All they do is WIN!). I think Stanford and Oregon are the two best teams in the nation and I rank Oregon turning a 21-3 deficit into a 52-31 win over the Cardinal as the most impressive performance since USC fell a touchdown behind Oklahoma and then overwhelmed them to the tune of 55-19 (FML). I just think Oregon has the better offense, better defense, better special teams, better coach, and they’ve played better teams. Everything about this game tells me Oregon will win a high-scoring game. Something like 56-45. But I’ve been wrong before.
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